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Mad Money

News/Business. (2012)

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01:00:00

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Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

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mpeg2video

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ac3

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528

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480

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Cramer 9, Us 8, Santander 5, Conagra 4, America 4, Audi 3, Penney 3, Phillips 3, New York 2, Washington 2, Montana 2, Ralcorp 2, Banco Santander 2, Amazon 2, Joe 2, New Jersey 1, Latin America 1, Costco 1, Asia 1, Redskins 1,
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  CNBC    Mad Money    News/Business.  (2012)  

    November 27, 2012
    11:00 - 12:00am EST  

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you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. i'm going b-i-g. [ male announcer ] good choice business pro. good choice. go national. go like a pro. i'm jim cramer, and welcome to my world. you need to get in the game. firms are going to go out of business and he's nuts! they're nuts! they know nothing! i like to say there is always a bull market somewhere. "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate, so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. consumer confidence highest in four years. ♪ hallelujah number of people planning to buy a house. record high. robust holiday season sales from
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the get go. while we are perched on the fiscal cliff. should stop spending in its tracks. >> the house of pain. >> welcome to a world, a ball of confusion. confusion that produces results like we had today in the market. where the averages swung wildly, dow falling 89 points. nasdaq drifting 3.80% lower. they actually got their way out of the down turn at the same time that the fiscal cliff jump would send us right back into one. conundrum, paradox? how can it be? a couple of reasons. first is what really matters. number one asset, her house, and that house price is going higher as we found out from the 3% gain
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in home prices reported by the case-shiller survey this morning. you get the property values up and you get a consumer who feels that all is not lost. 14,000 may be transitioning from the hole in their house to being in the black again. that could be driving this whole confidence locomotive. >> all aboard. >> it is the single biggest variable that has changed in the last year. the last time we worked the consumer confidence level, it was in february of 2008. home prices were beginning their traumatic fall. we could be having a developing home shortage. also explains the endless buy on the home goods stocks.
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more important, these housing price increases have to be considered tectonic when it comes to the positive psyche of the homeowners, which might explain the consumer confidence in the face of the fiscal cliff. perhaps the majority of the people who were polled are oblivious to the dangers of the fiscal cliff. maybe they don't know what it means. maybe they don't know about the tax increases that await us. do they know about the layoffs and the take away of the stimulus? are they foolish and brave? smug, we won't go back into a recession? perhaps obtuse. like the warden in "shawshank redemption." first off, we shouldn't be putting that much faith in the
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consumer value numbers to begin with. it was right at the beginning of the breakdown of society as we know it. sure, they were confident. but they were wrong. great depression was right around the corner. second, many people polled were paying no income taxes. we know that 47% of the people in the country were paying the rates. but a lot of people in the country, cohort small and it is a small part of the survey. maybe the wealthier people haven't assessed the impact, given how difficult the tax code is to comprehend. i have been trying to figure out what it could be. that makes me cautious. third, it is possible we are overstating the whole fiscal cliff issue. there are people who calculate how much they would owe.
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they are still spending aggressively. maybe they just don't care. perhaps the fiscal cliff is not impacting people because so much of the discussion has to do with increases in capital gains and dividend taxes. the majority of americans including i'm willing to bet, a gigantic percentage polled by that survey, don't have taxable gains to speak of. there has been a spade of dividends to spare. but these are small. they don't affect more than a handful percentage-wise. capital gains and dividend tax increases may not be enough to move the confidence needle to increase the value of your home. most stocks haven't appreciated enough to have taxable capital gains anyway. finally, there is the possibility that most of those
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polled generally believe that a deal will be reached and that the extremists aren't in charge. maybe they believe that the radical democrats believe that the republicans aren't controlled by some guy named grover norquist. republicans signed a pledge that they won't vote for tax increases that are needed to forge a compromise. in this issue i have to admit that i grow less confident by the day. we have heard harry reid say there has been less progress in the talks. it looked to be a benign session. we have been reading how the republicans were open to a deal that includes revenue increases.
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we aren't reading about how the tea party go against taxes when leadership agrees to it. i'm sure they don't record the presidential election as a referendum to anything. referendum to anything. they vote for the betrayal of their own beliefs. because the tax increases would amount to a de facto destruction of their word not to raise taxes. in other words, let's say you are a hard line democrat. you get higher taxes for the rich. the hard line democrats don't care about the stock market. they probably think that the republicans own stocks anyway. many of the hard liners want a smaller defense budget. here is the bottom line. the combination of these lines
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believe that the consumer is blissful but ignorant. the bill will come soon enough even if there is no agreement. i say we solve the cliff and have a lot more to be confident about. we go over the cliff and it turns out that the consumer was just past all along. >> hi jim. i have grown to adore your show. it is enhanced by your insight and personality. i would like to know your thoughts about the high end luxury retail stocks and how they will fare in both the short-term and long-term. >> stocks didn't rally. these are all problems with the fiscal cliff.
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every one of those stocks started going up had we heard there was a deal. we have to wait for a deal or we can't plunge in. thank you for all of those kind words. >> can we go to paul in new hampshire? >> booyah from the granite state. if our leaders rise above partisan politics and if the mortgage interest deduction is eliminated, what do you think the impact on reits will be? >> impact on real estate investment trusts? >> they are totally trading as a factor of the dividend tax. and what people think it can earn after tax on how little the yields are right now. those stocks are too low and the stocks appreciated. they are not as much a question
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about refies. except for those i think you have to avoid right now. the consumer i think is blissful. but it may turn out that the consumer is ignorant. >> coming up. stocking stuffer. shares of pvh corp rising over 50% after sewing up a deal to buy a major calvin klein licenser. is it time to put this one under the tree? don't miss cramer's earnings exclusive with the ceo. meal ticket? the deal shock the street this morning. as the shares heat up. should you be tempted to take a bite? cramer wraps what is ahead. ready to reverse?
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the charts have not been kind to many foreign financials. but cramer has found pattern signaling a turnaround as jim goes off the charts. all coming up on "mad money." >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to "mad money." can i help you?
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i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office. inspiration. great power. iconic design. exhilarating performance. [ race announcer ] audi once again has created le mans history! [ male announcer ] and once in a great while... all of the above. take your seat in the incomparable audi a8. take advantage of exceptional values on the audi a8 during the season of audi event. ♪ bp has paid over twenty-threebp billion dollarsnt to the gulf. during the season of audi event. to help those affected and to cover cleanup costs. today, the beaches and gulf are open,
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and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. and bp's also committed to america. we support nearly 250,000 jobs and invest more here than anywhere else. we're working to fuel america for generations to come. our commitment has never been stronger.
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now that we are right in the middle of the shopping season, focus on retailers that control their destiny. little uncertainty over the fiscal cliff, you need to own companies that exist regardless of what happens on the economy. take pvh. host of other brands you know. back on october 31st, we learned that pvh was acquiring a brand
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for $2.9 billion. you have the house of klein all together. pvh reported after the bell today and the results were very strong. the company delivered strong earnings. let's check in with the fabulous chairman and ceo to find out more about the quarter. good to see you. all right, this was a very interesting thing this quarter. you had already told people that you thought you could beat the number. you had four cents more than anybody thought. was it the strength of the consumer here?
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is it the margins? how much better europe is for you? what is the make up of that last bit? >> margins were better. we were being on the gross margin line. better with taxes and overall, this quarter given the warnico acquisition, we were forced more or less to come out and give guidance and we took it up. so it was a very strong quarter for us. one of the things, and i know it is not as important as it used to be, but your heritage brand, 3% increase, this is a major change. it is in the midst of a tremendous turnaround, so we are expecting a strong third quarter. we expect revenue up somewhere
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in the six to seven percent range and very strong earnings. >> is that jc penney? who is driving that? >> a big piece has to do with the jc penney business. we put those new shops in, back to school and they have continued to deliver strong results for us and for jc penney. we are very happy the way that the izod brand is doing. >> sandy had to shut down a lot of stores for you. >> the hurricane, the storm, 35-40% of your business is done in that territory. it is a big part of our business. it did impact us in the first part of november. we were were able to still raise the year we were able to do. we were looking for a big 4th quarter.
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revenues will be up 7%. we were looking for earnings per share growth based on the guidance. so, we are expecting 4th quarter, a holiday season to continue very strong. >> how important is the cost of acquisition versus the core basic strength of the business? i mean to me, it has to be a big up year given the strength of what you are seeing already and what you can do. >> we have talked about the strength of the brand overall worldwide. we think we can add to that. we think the acquisition can be accretive in the first year. we talked about two to three years from now. so, that you know, that is the point next year is a transition
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year, bringing the business in. i think we have talked about 35 cents a share, but i think the real opportunity there is greater than that. >> i have been emphasizing companies that take the bull by the horns. when you hit that triple b minus rating, do you still get low cost debt versus a couple years ago? >> yeah, look this is a great time to invest. if you are smart about it and you look at the historical levels of where the interest rates are, we could borrow at very low rates now. we can use our balance sheet as a weapon to grow our business and our brands. you don't want to overburden the company with debt. but we should be in a strong position with that.
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it allows us to grow the brand. >> you said asia one day. is it upon us with the warnico acquisition? >> it should be 20%. >> that much? that is gigantic. >> 15% of our revenues, we'll double size of our asia business. it is one of the fastest growing markets. that will continue, as will latin america has been a strong area for us. that business is up as well. >> gigantic. >> and those areas and being able to develop operating platforms within that region gives us a competitive advantage. >> one last question, try and understand the conundrum here. we talked about the fiscal
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cliff. the consumer that you talk about, is probably the strongest in multiple years, is there a reconciliation here, consumer being so strong and yet taxes going up? >> i'm not an economist. but i can say to you, look, great brands command higher prices in any market and drive consumers. we are all about taking the brands and growing those businesses globally. we're not totally reliant on any region. the world is going to go through ups and downs. i think that is what we have put together. i guess i would say that the u.s. consumer for the holiday season seems to be in good shape. >> thank you manny chirico, chairman and ceo of pvh.
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we are staying there. after the break trying to make you some more money. >> coming up. the deal shook the street this morning. but as the frozen food maker shares heat up, should you be tempted to take a bite? cramer unwraps what is ahead. the charts have not been kind to foreign financials but cramer has found a pattern that is signaling the turn around. as jim goes off the charts. all coming up on "mad money."
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conagra, the big food company, this company has the most exposure to commodity prices. after a lengthy chase the company was able to make a deal to acquire ralcorp. the grocery store brands that taste the same as the real
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thing but cost less. conagra will be the largest private label. consumers love it because it is cheaper. private label products carry it. it's a win/win. and now it is about to become the king of private label. you know a takeover is good when shares shoot higher. welcome back to "mad money." >> it is good to be back. >> point blank, what is the vision here. when i go through the conference call, you actually call out costco, trader joe's, and it seems like you are in a lot more
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stores than you were previously with conagra. >> you know jim that is true. our vision we have talked about before, we have a clear strategy a recipe for growth. and private label is clearly one of them. we are very excited to have this strategy play out with the biggest private label player today. >> how do you take all your brands to all the supply chains throughout the country? >> well, jim, one of the things that gives me the highest degree
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of confidence is that we already have almost $1 billion of private label business. so we have the infrastructure set up and the experience. that is probably the most important. second is that our strategy is not to compete with ourselves between branded and private label. there is very little overlap that we anticipate going down that path. we will have distinct categories and will be in other segments under private label. >> let's take noodles. >> those are all brands that are
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regional pasta brands that are almost like control brands. you will not see us advertising pennsylvania dutch noodles on the super bowl. we don't consider them major branded products like marie callendar and healthy choice. those are good strong regional brands in the markets that play them. >> the quick serve restaurant business. >> probably the best example is mcdonald's. we are a very big player as the biggest potato company in north america. so, we will become a bigger
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player in breakfast with ralcorp griddle products like pancakes. some of the channels where we already have presence, but we'll have a greater scale with key customers like mcdonald's. >> you have been terrific at trying to keep commodity prices down. are you able to get a better deal? >> we promised today, $225 million of synergies. a big piece will come from procurement. very similar to what we have done here, we were a big company and we didn't have a lot of size but we have scale. when you can buy as one $18
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billion company, that scale leverage is very important in things like procurement with suppliers. you know, i'm trying to figure out whether the consumers are in great shape or not. are your highest price point products selling as well as they were before? >> it is a very bifurcated economy today with the consumer. you have high-end consumers that are feeling pretty good. in basic everyday needs like food, people no matter what economic strata they are in, they are trying to save on those basics.
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we are doing very well with products like marie calendar's. they will do very well with those folks. but there are many other folks, a majority or people who really are sticking to a strict budget. and they only have so much to spend at the grocery store. how do they get the most for their money? that is one of the reasons why this orientation with the private label, we can bring all the capability to play here, things like innovation, customer management, where we can bring all of that to bear on products that stores are looking to sell under their own label and deliver really strong high quality value for the money for many consumers who are working
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with a very tight budget. >> the market agrees with me. this was a great acquisition. congratulations. >> thank you, jim. >> okay. conagra is going higher, guys. i like this acquisition very much. stay with cramer. >> coming up. are you ready to get charged up? cramer cranks up the voltage on all new hyperactive lightning round.
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it is time for the lightning round. are you ready skee-daddy? it is time for the lightning round. let's start with tony in new jersey. toni? >> thank you so much for the help that you give us each day.
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i bought pbt. what do you think? >> yeah, i was talking with my friend matt. he works with me at the street here. we were mesmerized. we don't want to sell it here. we think they can rally. let's go to joe in iowa please, joe? >> i'm short rimm. what do you think? >> i don't advise shorting. i think the stock is overvalued. let's go to brian in new york. >> how was your thanksgiving? >> how was yours? >> seeing eli manning's all time touchdown record was better. abercrombie. >> you were like that jerk i saw leaving the game the other day.
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i was in mourning. >> my stock is abercrombie. i'm wondering what is going on. >> i think that the stock was so heavily shorted. i think you should take profits in it. i feel like bradshaw about it. and not terry. the sideline one. anyway. all right. let's go to bernice in new york. >> i hear you recommending bristol myers a lot. would you go with pfizer? >> it is like the dallas cowboys. bristol is like the washington redskins. let's go to kevin in connecticut.
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>> wendy's? >> everything is being colored by mcdonald's which is not doing that well. it has had a nice run. jeff in montana. >> good booyah from montana. my question is, we have a stock you recommended, dvax. >> trouble trouble. you know i got to tell you something. classic overreaction. it is not right, i don't want you to sell it here. i don't think that they can get that trial ready by february though. let's go to mark in ohio. >> hello, jim. booyah from cincinnati. >> bengals look good. thank you for aj green. >> i have a question about cdi.
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i'm big on natural gas. >> i think it is okay. so, you know what? go to some that aren't doing as well. let's go to don in california. >> my stock is fsys. >> yeah, you know that has not been that -- you know, no. ring the register. i don't like the prospects there. and that was the special fantasy football lightning round. >> coming up. ready to reverse? the charts have not been kind to many foreign financials.
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but cramer had found a pattern signaling a turnaround as jim goes off the charts. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.
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right now this market is facing two big problem areas that need to be worked out themselves. first, the united states can only hope that leaders in washington decide to rise above partisan politics. the second problem zone is easier to get a handle on. it's europe. one stock tells you everything you need to know. it's banco santander. san. the spanish bank that bottomed over the summer. if you want to get a read on europe, keep track of santander. we are going off the charts to see where the stock might be headed. we are doing it with my college
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at realmoney.com. according to collins, it looks like it is ready to roar. with the stock an inch away from breaking out, check out this daily chart. it may not look like much but it may move higher. first and foremost two important momentum indicators which is called the relative strength index. that's at the top. the stochastics at the bottom. collins loves that situation. showing up with this recent rounding bottom. okay. that is an important pattern. based on the strength, if it can simply hold above $7.25 which is
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about 15 cents below where it is right now, collins thinks we can see $8 in a few weeks. the easiest way to understand santander is through the lens of the trix. the triple exponential moving average that you can see this is something that the chartists use to detect changes before they happen. when the black line crosses over it is called a bullish crossover. it is a classic sign that you should buy the underlying stock. this is it right here.
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these have given you terrific entry points right before the big move, just over the last six months, represented by the vertical dotted green line. both times give you a double digit move. the trix saying santander is about to make a big move higher. if the black line goes under the red line, capture this trade. let's look at the weekly chart, a longer time frame. this has been a real grinch. thankfully he sees reasons to be
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hopeful in the pictograph of the action. right now he is going through a rounding bottom pattern for the 4th time in two years. normally when you get one of these bottoms they are followed by a breakout. what makes this pattern different from the last three? the differences make them feel more bullish about the stock. the previous three rounding patterns, it moved in a flag formation after the rounding bottom informed. it traded sideways for a while. then when the bottom of the channel was broken, they got it out of the stock. there is a difference.
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it's made a descending channel and by some bizarre logic, it is actually a good thing. how does it work? this time, we are trading back down into the cup formed by the bottom pattern. the last three times the stock was above the cup. that meant it was overextended. we need to go five or six percent further to get past the channel. this time around the stock is lower and it is not over extended. this time, not being overextended there are two important levels. first, santander could break out at $7.45.
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if we get that it will be easier to break out over the top. the second important level is there and that brings in a lot of buyers. it is not spent. he thinks you can put on a partial position tomorrow. the stock falls to $6.50, all bets off. you know how it is. if the momentum starts to increase, it should push at the $8 level before the end of the year. collins believes $10 is next. here is the bottom line. the reading of the charts, banco santander could be about to make a sharp move higher. if he is right, that is very good news. this is a terrific gauge of europe and if it offers us a way
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out, they can become the de facto consolidating good bank. if santander starts rallying, we have to believe the situation across the atlantic is getting better. after all the torture they put us throw, it seems reasonable to make a profit from chaos that might be beginning to resolve itself.
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urks here is one company, best buy. the founder can't believe how his mighty collossus has fallen. amazon has raised $3 billion. one founder wants to take advantage of the low price by taking it private. i can only imagine the cost of the debt. who knows? jeff bezos of amazon, another founder is borrowing at three, five and ten year intervals. don't know what that means,
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those are the price that uncle sam borrows. how many times do they get offered a price that may not be as good as amazon? how many people pay sales tax at best buy, but no tax at amazon? one is armed with debt. best buy might not make it even if it does nothing. but who the heck would take down the debt that the former ceo is trying to buy the company with?
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perhaps the employees? amazon with that amount of capital at those prices, not only does it have a chance to put best buy in an early grave, it can go after every retailer with high debt. without being bound by the credit required to finance inventory or the need to pay escalating rents.
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